The Intelligent Punters Guide to the 2023 Cheltenham Racing Festival

DAY ONE (Tuesday) Neil Clark And they're off! It's time again for the Olympics of National Hunt racing: otherwise known as the Cheltenham Racing Festival. Let’s take a look at day one (Tuesday) to see where the best bets for ‘Intelligent Punters’ lie: 1.30 The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Festival maestros Mullins and Henderson have won eight of the last ten renewals, a period which has also seen just one horse win at double figure odds. But just four outright favourites have obliged so the percentage, value call, as Henderson has no runners this year, is an each-way play on a Willie Mullins shot available at around 5-1/6-1. Il Etait Temps, who beat favourite Facile Vega (also trained by Mullins), at the Dublin Racing Festival last month fits the bill. But its probably wise to have a bet on Facile Vega too as three of the four winning favourites since 2013 were trained by the Master of Closutton. 2.00 The Arkle Again, its Mullins and Henderson who have the best record in this with seven wins in the last ten years. They train the two market leaders this time, in the shape of El Fabiolo and Jonbon, who was runner-up behind stable-mate Constitution Hill in last season’s Supreme. That Festival form might just give the Henderson runner the edge, while last season’s Champion Hurdle fourth, Saint Roi (trained by Mullins) is an each-way alternative at around 8-1. At huge odds, Straw Fan Jack would be a fairytale winner for Sheila Lewis, but while he’s up against it on the ratings he is a CD winner and could perform better than expected. 2.35 The Ultima Just one favourite has obliged in this ultra-competitive 3m1f handicap chase in the last ten years, and while we’ve had two winners during that time going off at 28-1, six of the winners in the past decade have been between 8-1 to 11-1. It’s also worth noting that four of the last five winners have carried 11st or less and with testing going this year the advantage could again be with the lower weights. Given the domination of the Emerald Isle at the Festival in recent years, it’s pretty striking that there’s been only been two Irish winners of this since 1967, and none since 2006. Into Overdrive has done really well over fences this term and has to be short listed, while Monbeg Genius, representing a yard (Jonjo O’Neill) that has won the race three times before, and Cloudy Lane, who ran very well for a long way on his return to action at Haydock last month and whose trainer saddled the 14-1 fourth in this twelve months ago, are among others that you could make a cogent each-way case for. Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record- think of Vintage Clouds’ victory at 28-1 which we tipped up two years ago, so on that basis Oscar Elite, third last year off just a 1lbs lower mark, needs to be considered. You can’t rule out last year’s winner Corach Rambler doing it again but at 11-2 arguably the value in the price has gone seeing he's 6lbs higher this year. 3.30 The Champion Hurdle The phenomenon that is Constitution Hill seems to have scared away a lot of potential runners as only seven have been declared, the smallest Champion Hurdle field since 1974. At 1-3 the Henderson hot pot, who won last year’s Supreme Novices’ doing handstands, is hard to oppose but with just two places on offer, the race doesn’t make much appeal to small-stakes punters, but it will hopefully be one to savour. 4.10 Mares Hurdle There’ll be a huge cheer if dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle- who also won this race in 2020- can end her stellar career with victory here, but she faces tough opposition in the shape of Henderson duo Maries Rock- who won the race last year, and Epatante, who won the 2020 Champion Hurdle and who’s been placed in that race the last two years. Love Envoi, a winner at the Festival last year can’t be ruled out either as she’ll absolutely love the ground. It’s a very tough call but some of Honeysuckle’s best performances have come at the Festival and her 3-3 record here just tilts things in her favour. If you can get 11-2 about Epatante then she looks a solid each-way alternative. 4.50 The Fred Winter If ever there’s a race to have a punt on long-priced outsiders at the Festival this is it. In the last ten years we’ve had three winners at 33-1, two at 25-1 and one at 80-1! Incredibly Yer Man Willie Mullins is yet to train the winner, though he has been knocking on the door. So bearing in mind the average SP of winners, we need to cast our net far and wide. Two other points to consider: Gordon Elliot has won the race twice in the last five years and Irish-trained runners have won it five years in a row. Possibles for the short-list are the Elliot pair Ludus (28-1) and Jazzy Matty (14-1) and Sir Allen (11-1), who’s shown good form on testing ground. Jessie Harrington’s Mighty Mo Missouri (25-1) is another long-shot to consider each-way. 5.30 National Hunt Chase Messrs Mullins (W) and Elliot have dominated this in the past decade, with six victories altogether. Mullins saddles the red-hot even-money favourite Gaillard du Mesnil, who looks the likeliest winner, but at 6-1 Elliot’s Chemical Energy, who won at Cheltenham at the October meeting, has to be backed each-way. . If my tips/analysis help you to find a winner or two-(hopefully they will!), or if you have simply enjoyed reading the Guide, then please feel free to hit the ‘Donate’ button as it‘s all unpaid work. All contributions gratefully received!