tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-177668172024-03-14T22:05:38.438+00:00Neil ClarkU.K based Journalist, author & broadcaster.
Covering: Current & international affairs, history, sport (horse-racing & football), books, films, television, and plenty of other topics too....
Biographer of Edgar Wallace:
http://www.thehistorypress.co.uk/index.php/biography-books/stranger-than-fiction-25294.html.
Latest book Champion Jump Horse Racing Jockeys 1945 to Present Day- now out in paperback
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Champion-Jump-Horse-Racing-Jockeys/dp/1399016725/Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.comBlogger2346125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-78028127417109272832024-03-14T21:59:00.001+00:002024-03-14T22:05:05.749+00:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to the 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO THE 2024 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP </p><p>Neil Clark</p><p> It’s a hundred years since Red Splash won the first running of the Cheltenham Gold Cup (see my Daily Express feature this week on the centenary). But who’s going to cause a splash by winning the 2024 renewal? </p><p>10 go to post for jump racing’s Blue Riband, due off at 3.30pm today ( Friday). There’s plenty in with chances in the level weights affair (all the runners carry 11st 10lbs), but keeping in mind certain key trends can help us when we go through the field and sort out the probables from the possibles. </p><p> </p><p>KEY STATS:
1. Grade 1 winning form. Every winner this century had won at least one Grade 1 race. Last year Grade 1 winners filled the first three positions. </p><p>2. Age. No horse older than 9 has won the race this century. 7 and 8 year olds have won the last seven runnings and 10 of the last 11 Gold Cups. </p><p>3. 8 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. </p><p> </p><p>HORSE-BY-HORSE GUIDE.</p><p> 1. BRAVEMANSGAME Age: 9; Odds 11-1
Runner-up behind Galopin Des Champs last year (beaten 7l) , that’s the position he’s filled on all three of his starts this season; no reason why he should reverse the form with last year’s winner but he’s battle-hardened and consistent and could make the frame again if all goes well. </p><p>2. CORACH RAMBLER Age; 10; 12-1
Last year’s Grand National winner- aiming to be the first horse to win the Gold Cup after National success since Golden Miller in 1935. He has won at the last two Festivals, and while he needs to improve again to take this a big run not out of the question, though would be oldest winner since Cool Dawn in ‘98. </p><p> 3.FASTORSLOW Age 8; 6-1.
Beaten a neck by Corach Rambler in last year’s Ultima, but is now 4lbs better off; has beaten last year’s winner Galopin Des Champs twice in Ireland, and although that rival got the better of him quite decisively at Leopardstown last time, he could get closer today given a stiffer test. Has to be respected. </p><p> 4. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS Age; 8 . Evs
Stayed on well to land this last year, best horse in the race on ratings and trainer Mullins has had another great festival, back-to-back wins in this aren‘t easy but Mullins did achieve it with Al Boum Photo in 2019 and 2020; not quite a ’banker’ in such a competitive race but clearly the one they all have to beat. </p><p>. GENTLEMANSGAME Age 8;22-1
Comes into this under the radar as hasn’t been seen since beating Bravemansgame ( gave 6lbs) in the Charlie Hall in early November, has to improve on that but does go very well fresh and could be each-way value for a trainer (Mouse Morris), who does well with the relatively small number of darts he throws at the Cheltenham Festival dart board. </p><p>6. GERRI COLOMBE Age 8; 8-1
Beaten 23l by Galopin Des Champs over Christmas in Ireland, but kept fresh for this since, was a close second in the 2022 RSA, and not hard to see this dual Grade 1 novice chase winner getting placed over this longer trip. </p><p>8. JUNGLE BOOGIE Age 10; 22-1
Represents the 2021 Henry De Bromhead/Rachael Blackmore winning combo but while it’s hard to rule out anything they put out at Cheltenham this one needs to improve on what he’s shown so far to play a part. </p><p>9. L’HOMME PRESSE Age 9; 10-1.
Won the RSA in the mud in 2022, testing going plays to his strengths and any more rain would be a plus, each-way possibilities but needs to step up again to win as this is the best race he’s been in. </p><p>10. MONKFISH Age; 10; 25-1
A dual Festival winner- in 2020 and 2021, but only had four starts since then and while he’s obviously very classy, it would be a tremendous training feat even for the maestro Mullins to get a 10-year-old to win a race as competitive as this on his first chase start for nearly three years. </p><p>11. NASSALAM Age: 7; 35-1.
A visually very impressive runaway winner of the Welsh National steps back in trip and up in class for this; the more rain that falls before the off the better; needs to improve again but not entirely dismissed if going becomes really testing. </p><p> 12. THE REAL WHACKER Age 8; 50-1.
Won the RSA at the Festival last year, culminating a fine novice campaign; not quite so good this year and needs to improve to take a hand in this, would be a surprise winner but could be overpriced from an each-way perspective if a first time visor brings him back to something like last year’s form. </p><p>VERDICT; Reigning champ GALOPIN DES CHAMPS looks the likeliest winner as he’s the best horse in the race on ratings and form, and is not too old at 8 for a follow up, but if he does slip up or have an off day the race looks very open with a number of runners who could capitalise. Next best is probably Fastorslow. The going at Cheltenham is currently soft, but if more than the forecast rain arrives it could become heavy in patches which would enhance the chances of the likes of L’Homme Presse, Gerri Colombe and Nassalam. Gentlemansgame is under the radar and could well improve after just three starts over fences. </p><p>If you have enjoyed reading my guide (and it hopefully makes you a few pennies, then all donations, large or small gratefully received, via the donate button (top left)
</p>Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-80571079649180345362023-08-05T13:03:00.000+01:002023-08-05T13:03:54.560+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to Glorious Goodwood (Day 5)<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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Neil Clark
Winners so far this week; Lord Riddiford 8-1 (NAP), Kinross 10-11, Paddington 4-9, Vandeek 11-8, Ornellala 7-4, Temporize 6-1, Highfield Princess 4-9, Hamish 5-6. Places: Man of Eden 10-1; Sonny Liston (5th) 20-1; Wizard Of Eye (6th) 28-1; True Legend 10-1.
1.50 A tricky opener in which you could make a case for several of the runners. <b>Zaman Jemil </b>won going away last time and rates a worthy market leader; at longer odds the well-handicapped bottom weight <b>Capote’s Dream</b>, last year’s 12-1 winner <b>Many a Star </b>(who‘s now 2lbs lower), and <b>Cooperation </b> whose last win was in similarly testing conditions, are ones for the each-way shortlist.
2.25 Team Gosden won this last year with Trawlerman who then went on to win the Ebor, and they’ll be trying the same thing with <b>Sweet William</b> who needs to win here to get into the York showpiece later this month. Best each-way could be <b>Omniscent </b>(10-1), who ran out of fuel in the closing stages of the Northumberland Plate but who should be ideally suited by the drop back to 1m6f, and whose trainer Sir Mark Prescott has won the race before.
3.00 Team Gosden have three of the last seven runnings of the Lillie Langtry and so you’ve got to give a big chance to <b>Free Wind</b>, who can be forgiven a rare disappointing effort at Royal Ascot last time. <b>River of Stars </b>looks next best.
3.35 <b>Mr Wagyu </b>may be getting on a bit but he won the Stewards’ Cup in the mud two years ago and in similar conditions today represents each-way value at around 12-1. Trainer John Quinn has been on fire at Goodwood this week with three winners and one second, and his charge has slipped to a mark 6lbs lower than he won off in 2022. Plenty more can be given chances in the 28 runner cavalry charge, including the well-regarded favourite <b>Orazio</b>, whose trainer Charlie Hills has won the race twice in recent years, and at longer odds <b>Albasheer,</b> <b>Mum’s Tipple</b> and <b>Significantly.</b>
4.10 <b>Sophia’s Starlight</b> was second here over a shorter trip four days ago and may well do a ‘Novus‘ by turning a Goodwood place into a win. <b>Chartwell House</b> could be the main danger.
4.45 Charlie Johnston nominated <b>Individualist</b> as the horse he was most excited about running this week and the half-brother of Ascot Gold Cup winner Subjectivist is taken to win the maiden. Andrew Balding has won the last two runnings and <b>Royal Supremacy </b>could be the best of his two entries.
5.20 It could be madness not to have an each-way wager on <b>One Step Beyond</b> as he gets in here off bottom weight which should count for a lot more in the testing conditions. Trainer Gary Moore has already had a winner at the meeting this week and son Ryan takes over from a 7lbs claimer.
If you've enjoyed reading the Guide, and it helps you win a bit of money (hopefully!), then all donations greatly received.
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-11997209935989491752023-08-04T12:43:00.005+01:002023-08-04T12:52:33.131+01:00<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2023 (DAY 4)
Neil Clark </p><p>(Winners so far this week: Lord Riddiford 8-1 (NAP), Kinross 10-11, Paddington 4-9, Vandeek 11-8, Ornellaia 7-4; places: Man of Eden 10-1.)
A very tricky card today with tons of runners but let’s examine past trends and try and beat the bookies!
1.50 Just one winner of the 2m4 and a half furlong Coral Goodwood Handicap has carried more than 9st in the last ten years; with the 8st 8lbs mark about the average weight of the winners. The race has also seen its fair share of long-priced winners too. <b>Temporise</b> (13-2), and at a bigger prices <b>Land of Winter</b> (20-1) and <b>Winterwatch</b> (33-1), match those weight trends. <b>Law of the Sea</b> (13-2) carries 9st 2lbs but his trainer Ian Williams has won the race three times and so is also worthy of consideration under the in-form Jim Crowley.
2.25. Sir Michael Stoute has had some fancied runners run disappointingly this week, so the odds-on favourite <b>Nostrum</b> isn’t bomb proof; however on form he’s the likeliest winner of this race which his trainer has a good record in. <b>Docklands</b> looks next best.
3.00 The Golden Mile is a real challenge with 21 going to past, but there is a very strong trend in that eight of the last nine runnings have been won by horses drawn 1-5 with three of the last five winners drawn 3. Clearly the favourite <b>Lattam,</b> drawn 3, and last year’s third <b>Revich</b>, who runs off the same mark and is drawn 1, have to go on the shortlist, together with <b>Sonny Liston</b><b></b>, who’s in 2 and who‘ll benefit by dropping back to a mile. David O’Meara has a good record in the race; his 1-2 from last year, <b>Orbaan </b>and <b>Blue For You</b> are back for more and despite their higher draws also have to be considered each-way, along with <b>Rhoscolyn</b>, who was runner-up in 2021 and was 7th last year off a much higher mark. <b>The Wizard of Eye</b>, drawn 6, ran very well in a Group 3 over course and distance last year, and could be the best of the real long-shots.
3.35 <b>Highland Princess</b> has been running really well in top sprints this season and the drop to Group 2 level should allow her to get her head in front even though you won‘t get rich backing her unless you really wade in . Her trainer John Quinn has already had two winners and a second at the meeting this week. <b>Equality</b> looks next best while at much bigger odds Czech raider <b>Ponntos</b>, not beaten far in fifth last year makes some each-way appeal.
4.10 ’<b>Hamish</b>s 3lbs penalty makes this harder but he still appeals as the likeliest winner, with <b>Mimikyu </b>next best.
4.45 Flag of St George<b></b> narrowly failed to get up at Windsor last time and could well go one better in this 6f nursery, while <b>Loaded Gun</b> was staying on very strongly when winning over 5f last time and is another to consider.
5.20 <b>True Legend</b> gets in here with a 6lbs penalty for winning at Salisbury last Saturday and the Sir Mark Prescott runner could be each-value at around 10-1.
If you enjoyed reading this guide and it helped you in any way to find some winners, then please consider making a small donation. That would be greatly appreciated. Many thanks!
</p>Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-9944395550499007892023-04-14T09:35:00.004+01:002023-04-14T09:54:47.586+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to the 2023 Grand National<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO THE 2023 GRAND NATIONAL
Neil Clark </p><p>And they’re off! At 5.15pm at Aintree on Saturday a maximum of 40 horses will go to post for the 175th renewal of the world’s most famous -and most exciting horse race- one which was first run back in 1839.
Deciding which horse, or horses, to back might seem a daunting task but hopefully this horse-by-horse guide will help. </p><p> Overview</p><p> The Grand National used to be a strong trends race, but last year’s 50-1 winner, Noble Yeats, ridden by retiring amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, was a real stats-buster as he was the first 7-year-old to win since 1940! It does seem that with the further modification of the once formidable fences, the average age of National winners is getting younger- with age and experience counting for less than they used to. </p><p>Consider this. Eight-year-olds used to win the race about once every decade (1973, 83, 92, 02). But eight-year-olds have now won four of the last seven runnings.
Conversely, no horse older than nine has won since 2014. Compare that to the period 1975-81 when all bar one of the winners was over 9, and 1989-1996 when the same thing happened again. Now that doesn’t mean we can, or should, dogmatically rule out any horse older than nine in this year’s race, and that a seven-year-old will win again, only that recent trends strongly suggest the advantage now seems to be with the younger horses. </p><p>As to weight, carrying less than 11st stone still is an advantage in the Aintree marathon, with seven of the last ten winners carrying between 10st 3lbs and 10st 13lbs.
And if we look at the forty horses finishing in the first four since 2012, 29 of them carried less than 11st.
So if you’re backing say four horses, it’s probably sensible to have at least three of them in the 10st- to 10st 13lbs weight bracket. </p><p>Horses that have been placed, or run well in the race often do so again, so do pay close attention to runners who come into that category, at least from an each-way perspective. From a win perspective though recent trends do favour horses having their first run in the race which again is probably connected to the modification of the fences. L’Escargot in 1975 and Hallo Dandy in 1984 both won having been placed in previous years, but the last horse to achieve that feat was Amberleigh House in 2004.
After the legendary Red Rum won the race three times in the 1970s, no horse won back-to-back Nationals until Tiger Roll in 2018 & 19. Can Noble Yeats double up this year?
If so, he would become the sixth Irish trainer winner in the last seven years, another strong recent trend. In fact you have to go back to 2014 for the last English trained winner (the 2017 winner, One for Arthur, was trained in Scotland). </p><p>Finally regarding prices, don’t be put off backing horses at long odds if you fancy them. Since 2006 we’ve had winners at 100-1, 66-1, 50-1, 33-1 (three times), and 25-1 (twice), showing that finding the winner is even harder than it used to be as the quality of the race has improved and so many are in with chances.
At least from win-only purposes, favourites are generally worth taking on in such a big field, only two favourites or joint-favourites have won since 2008. Well-fancied horses though have regularly been placed, so if you do fancy one of the market leaders, the advice is to back it each-way as at least you’ll get some return if it finishes in the frame. </p><p>Now let’s take a closer look at the runners.</p><p> **** Potential winner
*** Each way possibilities
** Possibilities at best but unlikely winner
* No hoper </p><p>1. ANY SECOND NOW. 11 yo. Weight 11st 11lbs. Odds: 12-1 ***
With better luck Ted Walsh’s charge might be going into this chasing a third National win as he was an unlucky third in 2021 and a close second last year; sure to go very well again, but faces a stiff task to win off an 8lbs higher mark than 12 months ago. </p><p>2. NOBLE YEATS. 8yo. 11st 11lbs. 13-2 ***
Last year’s 50-1 winner, but more than a stone more on his back this time round. The trends say he’s likelier to be placed than win under his big burden, but then the trends said he couldn’t win last year as a seven-year-old so one would want to be too dogmatic about dismissing even though arguably the value has gone from his price.</p><p> 3. GALVIN 8yo. Weight 11st 11lbs. Odds 14-1 **
Has run very well in two good trials: the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham -which he won in 2021 and this year’s Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival. Another one of the high weight horses that has the credentials to run a decent race, though the trends say others have more chance of winning because of his burden.</p><p> 4. FURY ROAD 9yo. 11st 6lbs 50-1 **
Ran well at the meeting last year, a good run can’t be ruled out but combination of weight and unproven stamina ( yet to race beyond 3 miles) mean that others appeal more. </p><p>5. THE BIG DOG 10yo. 11st 5lbs. 16-1 ***
Fell last time out when running a big race in the Irish Gold Cup (won by subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs), but before that had run a blinder when third under top weight of 12st in the stamina-sapping Welsh National; with a clear round he is likely to be there or thereabouts at the finish (and you don‘t have to be barking to fancy him!).</p><p> 6. CAPODANNO 7yo. 11st 5lbs. 16-1 ** and a half
Won at the last two Punchestown festivals so clearly a spring horse; master trainer Willie Mullins skipped a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup to wait for this so has to be taken seriously; question is though, having had the first 7-year-old winner since 1940 last year, will we get another one so soon- or-will it be like buses? </p><p>7.DELTA WORK 10yo 11st4lbs. 13-2 ****
Won the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival for the 2nd year running in March, third last year when he got too far back, but 1lbs lower this time so has to be on the shortlist for a trainer (Gordon Elliott), who has already won this three times.</p><p> 8.SAM BROWN 11yo 11st 4lbs. 66-1 **
Sprang a 28-1 surprise in a 3m handicap chase at the meeting last year, and was also third over the Mildmay fences in 2021, that’s a plus; but stamina is a question mark especially if the ground is testing as he was pulled up on only previous occasion he raced beyond 3m1f in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last year. </p><p>9. LIFETIME AMBITION 8yo 11st3lbs. 20-1 ***and a half.
Very consistent sort who has finished in the first four in all but one of his 22 starts;; was fourth when favourite for the Grand Sefton over the National fences in November; needs to go a lot further here and stamina unproven; that said trainer Jessica Harrington doesn’t run many in this and saddled the 66-1 close second in 2019 with another horse whose stamina wasn’t assured so worthy of consideration. Would be a fairytale winner too as trainer is battling cancer. </p><p>10. CAREFULLY SELECTED 11yo 11st 1lbs. 25-1. ** and a half
Lightly raced 11-year-old who only returned to action in December having had two and a half years off. He won the Grade A Thyestes Chase at Gowran in February, staying on well at the finish. Some classy form in the book makes him of interest though he did unseat and looked held the last time he went beyond 3m1f.</p><p> 11. COKO BEACH 8yo 11st 25-1 ***
Belied his 50-1 odds in this last year when led for much of the way and was still in there pitching 3 out, perhaps if ridden with a bit more restraint might be able to improve on 8th position and make the frame; against that is 5lbs higher now. </p><p>12. LONGHOUSE POET 9yo 11st. 10-1. *** and a half.
Travelled strongly in this last year, was disputing the lead 2 out but weakened to finish sixth, perhaps he was a bit undercooked having not run since February but this year he’s had a more recent outing which should benefit. Shortlist material.</p><p> 13. GAILLARD DU MESNIL 7yo 11st. 10-1. ****
Winner of the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, when he did his best work at the finish, trainer Willie Mullins sidestepped a tilt at Monday’s Irish National (in which he was third last year) to go for this (Mullins won the race with another horse) and so given his staying chase form and connections, must be respected.</p><p> 14 DARASSO 10yo 10st 13lbs. 66-1 **and a half.
Was second in the Galway Plate behind Hewick which was fair form and third in the 3m Kerry National too but not raced beyond that distance so stamina is a doubt. Trainer though says he thinks he’s a ‘fair each-way chance’ so long as there’s not too much rain. </p><p>15. LE MILOS 8yo 10st 11lbs. 10-1.*** and a half
Won the Coral Gold Cup (aka ‘The Hennessy’) in November when he was doing his best work at the finish, paid the price for trying to take on Wishing and Hoping at Kelso last time but trainer Skelton thinks he’ll stay, he ticks age and weight boxes so quite a bit going for him. The negative is that there’s been no English-trained winner of this since 2015. </p><p>16. ESCARIA TEN 9yo 10st 10lbs. 100-1**
9th last year, weakening 2 out, 1lbs lower this time but that probably won’t be enough for him to greatly improve his placing. Could well get around again though. </p><p>17. THE BIG BREAKAWAY ** 8yo 10st 10lbs. 25-1.
A good second in the Welsh National at Christmas, ticks the age and weight boxes but he has mixed good runs with non completions; 4 non-completions in his last 8 runs so much depends on whether Saturday is a ’going day’ . Yes, he could go well, but comes with risks attached. </p><p>18. CAPE GENTLEMAN. 7yo 10st8lbs 100-1. **
Stamina doubts as best form over much shorter and has fallen twice in last eight races which is off-putting. Others appeal more. </p><p>19. ROI MAGE 11yo 10st 8lbs. 40-1. ***
Had some good Cross Country form in France, but over shorter, did finish third though in the Grade One Grand Steeplechase De Paris over 3m5f, trained in Ireland since last year and while he’s not entirely dismissed as could go well with a clear round others appeal more. </p><p>20. DIOL KER 9yo 10st 8lbs. 66-1. ***
Finished 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas which has been a good guide to this so might outperform his odds </p><p>21. A WAVE OF THE SEA 7yo 10st 6lbs.
80-1.*
Pulled up or fallen on four of his last eleven starts so that’s not really ideal for this test and when you also factor in the stamina doubts it’s easy to look elsewhere for the winner.</p><p> 22. MINELLA TRUMP 9yo 10st6lbs. 50-1.**
Would be an aptly named winner given the current troubles of the former US President, and also apt given that he’s trained by Donald Mccain, son of Ginger, whose Red Rum won the first of his three Nationals 50 years ago. But although he’s been quite a prolific winner, all his starts have been over trips shorter than 3m and on good ground so stamina taken very much on trust. </p><p>23. VANILLIER 8yo 10st 6lbs. 20-1.***
Third in the 2022 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, Irish challenger is the right age and has a nice weight, definite possibilities with a clear round (fell on penultimate start)</p><p> 24. VELVET ELVIS 7yo 10st 6lbs 33-1 ** and a half
6th in last year’s Irish National, where he was keeping on at the finish so not dismissed on stamina grounds, another who could be given an each way chance if he gets round. </p><p>25. AIN’T THAT A SHAME 9yo 10st 5lbs 16-1 *** and a half
4th in the race at Leopardstown at Christmas which has proved a good recent guide to this; could have further improvement to come over marathon trips and represents the 2021 winning de Bromhead/Blackmore combo; respected. </p><p>26. CORACH RAMBLER 9yo 10st 5lbs. 6-1. ****
10lbs ‘well-in’ as his second win in the Ultima at Cheltenham came after the National weights were published; from a handicapping perspective has a great chance and trainer- who won the race in 2017- admits they backed him; you could argue that at 6-1 in such a large field there isn’t much value left in his price but he still rates one of the likeliest winners. </p><p>27 ENJOY D’ALLEN 9yo 10st 5lbs 66-1.** and a half
His supporters (myself included) didn’t enjoy his run in this last year too much as he departed at the first; it’s hard to be that confident given what happened last year, but if he does clear the first this time and gets into a good jumping rythym then he could well outperform his odds as he has finished third in an Irish National. </p><p> 28. MR INCREDIBLE 7yo 10st 4lbs ** and a half.
Ran very well in the Totesport Classic at Warwick, should stay well, but is a bit of a character and has refused to race in the past so while he could figure on a good day he comes with risks attached. </p><p>29. MISTER COFFEY 8yo 10st 4lbs ** 40-1
Placed in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, reasons to believe he will stay and ticks the age and weight boxes, but otherwise excellent trainer has a poor record in the race and overall others look more likely. </p><p> 30. CLOUDY GLEN 10yo 10st 4lbs. Odds 80-1. ***
His form figures tell the story: UR, 2, PU,1, PU, 9, 3. PU. On a going day he can be very good (the ‘1’ is his win at 33-1 in the 2021 Hennessy) but it’s literally 50-50 which Cloudy Glen will turn up. If you’re looking for a positive he does usually follow a bad run with a good one and he did pull-up last time. </p><p>31. HILL SIXTEEN 10yo 10st 2lbs. 50-1.*** and a half
Has had a quiet campaign but he did run a very good race over the National fences when just failing to peg back Snow Leopardess in the 2021 Becher, jumped round ok and staying on again in the same race in December. Unlucky when hampered in the Scottish National last year, if all goes well an each-way case could be made for him at a big price off his low weight. </p><p>32. GABBY’S CROSS 8yo 10st 2lbs. 33-1 ** and a half
Should stay and ticks the age and weight boxes; trainer won the race 2021, may not be quite good enough but another with each-way possibilities. </p><p>33. RECITE A PRAYER 8yo 10st 2lbs. 66-1 * and a half
Got round in the Becher in his own time but the fact he hasn’t raced this calendar year is a big negative from a trends point of view and trainer Mullins looks to have more likely options. </p><p> 34.EVA’S OSCAR 9yo 10st 1lbs 50-1 ***
Welsh-trained grey who didn’t appear to quite get home in the Eider Chase (run over just short of the National distance) but still a respectable effort to finish fourth. Could run well for a long way and while he’s probably unlikely to win may be able to hit the first six. </p><p>35. OUR POWER 8yo 10st 22-1 ***
Improving chaser who won the old Racing Post Chase at Kempton last time, stamina for this still to prove, but trainer has done well in valuable handicaps in the last couple of seasons so is respected. </p><p>36. DUNBOYNE 8yo 10st </p><p> 37. FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 10yo 10st </p><p>38. FORTESCUE 9yo 10st </p><p>39. BACK ON THE LASH 9yo 10st </p><p>40. BORN BY THE SEA 9yo 10st. </p><p> VERDICT: So many in with chances in a very open race but the trends suggest that most of the placings will be taken by horses carrying between 10st and 11st. CORACH RAMBLER, on 10st 5lbs, is ten pounds ‘well in ‘ and so must go on the shortlist, while AIN'T THAT A SHAME and OUR POWER are among those who tick both the right age and weight boxes. Of those carrying 11st or above last year’s third DELTA WORK, National Hunt chase winner GAILLARD DU MESNIL, THE BIG DOG and, at bigger odds, LIFETIME AMBITION are other possibles for the shortlist, while towards the foot of the weights HILL SIXTEEN, one of only two horses to complete the course safely twice, might be overpriced at 50-1.
</p>Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-9693906281222131642023-03-17T08:28:00.000+00:002023-03-17T08:28:21.861+00:00<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO THE 2023 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
Neil Clark </p><p> </p><p>Horse-by horse Guide </p><p> Key trends:
*Age: Just one winner older than 8 has won in the last 10 years, and no horse older than 9 since 1998. </p><p>Nine of the last ten runnings have been won by horses aged 7 or 8. </p><p>* Every winner this century had won at least one Grade 1 race. </p><p>*Last four winners trained in Ireland ; six of the last seven winners Irish-trained. </p><p>*18 of last 22 runners had won or been placed before at the Cheltenham Festival. </p><p> 1. AHOY SENOR Odds 25-1 </p><p>His form figures under Rules Oct-Dec: UR, 1, 2, 5, 3,5.
Jan-April 2,1,1,1,2,1,1
Won the Cotswold Chase over the course in January and although he’d still need to step up on that, he was a good second on testing ground in the RSA at the Festival last year and has definite each-way claims for in-form yard if his jumping holds up. </p><p>2. A PLUS TARD Odds 4-1 </p><p>Last year’s 15l winner, and the runner-up in 2021, he has only had the one run this year when very disappointing in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but de Bromhead’s stable stars are running well this week and if he’s back to anywhere near his best then he has an obvious chance. </p><p>3. BRAVEMANSGAME Odds 13-2 </p><p>Impressive winner of the King George in December, and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the end there. Can’t be ruled out given he’s only lost once over fences, but would have been more confident that he’d definitely get the trip without the recent rain. </p><p>4. CONFLATED Odds: 18-1</p><p> Developed into a top-class performer having started out in handicaps, did win the Savills Chase at Leopardstown impressively at Christmas; probably needs to step up again, but not entirely ruled out if stamina holds out. </p><p>5. ELDORADO ALLEN Odds: 125-1 </p><p>Solid enough performer but has had a number of gos at the highest level but up to now has generally come up short and it would be a surprise if he can change that today.</p><p> 6. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS Odds: 5-4. </p><p>Only defeat over fences came at the Festival last year when crashing out at the last when he had the Turners at his mercy. Three more good wins since then including on his first try over 3m in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. If his stamina holds on the soft ground then he has a worthy favourite’s chance and rates the likeliest winner though he may be too short now for many punters.</p><p> 7. HEWICK Odds: 50-1 </p><p>Has been a revelation these past 12 months landing the old Whitbread Gold Cup, the Galway Plate and the Grand National Hurdle in America! On good ground you could make an each-way case for him even though its his first run in UK Graded company but the going looks to have gone against him. </p><p>8. MINELLA INDO Odds: 16-1. </p><p>Winner in 2021, runner-up last year, he looks a big price considering his record in the race and at the Festival in general (two wins and two seconds), but from a win point of view his age is a negative as we’ve had no ten-year-old winner since Cool Dawn in 1998. </p><p> 9. NOBLE YEATS Best odds: 14-1.</p><p> Bids to become the first Grand National winner to subsequently win a Gold Cup and only the third horse to win both races. Has to enter each-way calculations based on his staying on 3rd in the Cotswold Chase when he was technically the best horse at the weights; the cheek-pieces which were on at Aintree last April are now back on. </p><p>10. PROTEKTORAT Odds: 18-1. </p><p>Ran a very good race to be third in this last year; would have got closer without blundering at the last, disappointed in the Cotswold Chase having been a very impressive winner of the Betfair, but does tend now to alternate between very good runs and disappointing ones, another with definite each-way possibilities if all goes well.</p><p> 11. ROYAL PIGALLE Odds: 40-1 </p><p>6th and 5th in last two runnings, softer ground may help him get closer this time but while he might run into a place (was 2nd in the King George), he is 0-5 at the highest level so a win is probably unlikely. </p><p>12. SOUNDS RUSSIAN Odds 40-1. </p><p>Improving all the time over fences and ran his best race to date when 2nd in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January- he probably would have won without a mistake 3 out. Has to improve again but Northern challenger not without a chance given a clear round. </p><p> 13. STATTLER Odds: 14-1. </p><p>Won the National Hunt chase at the Festival so definitely will have the stamina for this; recent rain will help his cause but price probably just about right. Yet another with place possibilities. </p><p>VERDICT: It’s hard to remember a better Gold Cup, with so many in with each-way chances. Red hot favourite <b>Galopin Des Champs i</b>s the likeliest winner but if he doesn’t quite get home on the testing ground there are plenty of others who might land the spoils. Last year’s 15l winner <b>A Plus Tard</b> has attracted market support, while at longer odds Cotswold Chase trio <b>Noble Yeats</b>,<b> Ahoy Senor</b> and <b>Sounds Russian </b>could figure, while last year’s third <b>Protektorate</b> is another danger if back to his ‘A’ Game. <b>Bravemansgame</b> has to go on the short-list too if conditions start to dry up while <b>Conflated</b> and<b> Stattler</b> are two ‘dark horses‘ from Ireland.2021 winner <b>Minella Indo</b> ticks nearly all the right boxes but has the age stat against him.</p><p> If you enjoyed reading my IP Guides this week and they’ve helped you make a few bob (hopefully), then all donations gratefully received!</p>Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-19696594215199460542023-03-16T12:53:00.002+00:002023-03-16T12:53:42.840+00:00Intelligent Punters Guide to the Cheltenham Festival- Day 3<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO THE 2023 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Day 3)
Neil Clark
Well, it’s been pretty good tipping so far this week but can we keep it up on a tricky looking Day 3?
Here goes.
1.30 Mighty Potter . N.B. Appreciate It
2.10 Maxuum, The Bosses Oscar e-w.
2.50 Shishkin should win but French Dynamite cld be each-way value.
3.30 Teahupoo, Gold Tweet e-w.
4.10 Marvel de Cerissy e-w. Born by the Sea ew (highly speculative!).
4.50 Luccia; The Model Kingdom each-way
5.30 Royal Thief, Dunboyne.
If I help you/have helped you back a few winners, all donations large or small gratefully received!
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-57574144338332829022023-03-15T13:13:00.000+00:002023-03-15T13:13:31.746+00:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to the 2023 Cheltenham Festival (Day 2)<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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Neil Clark
After a great day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival for our Intelligent Punter's Guide it's time to turn our attention to the action on Day 2.
1.30 The Ballymore
Willie Mullins has won this five times, including last year, while Gordon Elliott has bagged two of the last five runnings. Mullins saddles four of the 10 runners, and having won it with the favourite last year who was unbeaten, could well do so again courtesy of Impaire et Passe who looked very good when landing a Grade 2 at Punchestown in January. Having won yesterday's opener with Marine Nationale the Connell/O'Sullivan combo's Good Land has to be respected and put on the each-way shortlist.
2.10 The Brown Advisory (aka 'The RSA')
Gerri Colombe, unbeaten in seven races under Rules looks a worthy favourite but Sir Gerhard, who won the Ballymore on this day a year ago could be a big threat. At 6-1 CD winner The Real Whacker, who also had a Gold Cup entry, makes definite each-way appeal.
2.50 The Coral Cup.
It looks impossible with 26 runners going to post but we've done very well in this down the years and hopefully again this year. You need to have three or four horses in your portfolio for this and among those who might reward each-way support are HMS Seahorse (a good fourth in the Fred Winter at the Festival last year), and Captain Conboy who's been well backed. Messrs Henderson and Elliott have an excellent record in this so it's probably wise to include at least one of their runners in your 'team' . Hendo's Call Me Lord is 50-1 but is a course winner while the unexposed Riaan (28-1) might be Elliott's best value entrant.
3.30 The Champion Chase
It's the battle of the 'Es' with Editeur Du Gite, Edwardstone and Energumene (last year's winner) the leading contenders. You could make a very good case for all three, but marginal preference is for last year's Arkle winner Edwardstone based on how the race is likely to be run (yesterday on the soft going it suited those horses produced late).
4.10 The Cross Country
Gordon Elliott is the go-to man in this having been responsible for five of the last six winners and he can strike again courtesy of last year's winner Delta Work, who was easily the best horse at the wieghts in the CD handicap in January. At 66-1 Elliott's Mortal might be worth a small each-way interest too as he's run quite well on two previous tries over CD and could stay on for a place.
4.50 The Grand Annual
Dads Lad won over CD at the October meeting after running in the Greatwood Hurdle in November was put away for this presumably to protect his mark over fences. He has to go on the each-way shortlist, along with last year's winner Global Citizen and Final Orders, who has been in tremendous form in Ireland.
If you have enjoyed reading this and made some money with my tips yesterday, then all donations gratefully received!
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-23019583406030481322023-03-13T15:14:00.001+00:002023-03-13T15:14:25.351+00:00The Intelligent Punters Guide to the 2023 Cheltenham Racing Festival <form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Neil Clark
And they're off! It's time again for the Olympics of National Hunt racing: otherwise known as the Cheltenham Racing Festival.
Let’s take a look at day one (Tuesday) to see where the best bets for ‘Intelligent Punters’ lie:
1.30 The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Festival maestros Mullins and Henderson have won eight of the last ten renewals, a period which has also seen just one horse win at double figure odds. But just four outright favourites have obliged so the percentage, value call, as Henderson has no runners this year, is an each-way play on a Willie Mullins shot available at around 5-1/6-1. <b>Il Etait Temps,</b> who beat favourite <b>Facile Vega</b> (also trained by Mullins), at the Dublin Racing Festival last month fits the bill. But its probably wise to have a bet on <b>Facile Vega </b>too as three of the four winning favourites since 2013 were trained by the Master of Closutton.
2.00 The Arkle
Again, its Mullins and Henderson who have the best record in this with seven wins in the last ten years. They train the two market leaders this time, in the shape of <b>El Fabiolo</b> and <b>Jonbon,</b> who was runner-up behind stable-mate Constitution Hill in last season’s Supreme. That Festival form might just give the Henderson runner the edge, while last season’s Champion Hurdle fourth, <b>Saint Roi</b> (trained by Mullins) is an each-way alternative at around 8-1. At huge odds, <b>Straw Fan Jack </b>would be a fairytale winner for Sheila Lewis, but while he’s up against it on the ratings he is a CD winner and could perform better than expected.
2.35 The Ultima
Just one favourite has obliged in this ultra-competitive 3m1f handicap chase in the last ten years, and while we’ve had two winners during that time going off at 28-1, six of the winners in the past decade have been between 8-1 to 11-1.
It’s also worth noting that four of the last five winners have carried 11st or less and with testing going this year the advantage could again be with the lower weights.
Given the domination of the Emerald Isle at the Festival in recent years, it’s pretty striking that there’s been only been two Irish winners of this since 1967, and none since 2006.
<b>Into Overdrive</b> has done really well over fences this term and has to be short listed, while <b>Monbeg Genius</b>, representing a yard (Jonjo O’Neill) that has won the race three times before, and <b>Cloudy Lane,</b> who ran very well for a long way on his return to action at Haydock last month and whose trainer saddled the 14-1 fourth in this twelve months ago, are among others that you could make a cogent each-way case for. Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record- think of Vintage Clouds’ victory at 28-1 which we tipped up two years ago, so on that basis <b>Oscar Elite,</b> third last year off just a 1lbs lower mark, needs to be considered. You can’t rule out last year’s winner <b>Corach Rambler</b> doing it again but at 11-2 arguably the value in the price has gone seeing he's 6lbs higher this year.
3.30 The Champion Hurdle
The phenomenon that is <b>Constitution Hill </b>seems to have scared away a lot of potential runners as only seven have been declared, the smallest Champion Hurdle field since 1974. At 1-3 the Henderson hot pot, who won last year’s Supreme Novices’ doing handstands, is hard to oppose but with just two places on offer, the race doesn’t make much appeal to small-stakes punters, but it will hopefully be one to savour.
4.10 Mares Hurdle
There’ll be a huge cheer if dual Champion Hurdle winner <b>Honeysuckle</b>- who also won this race in 2020- can end her stellar career with victory here, but she faces tough opposition in the shape of Henderson duo <b>Maries Rock-</b> who won the race last year, and <b>Epatante</b>, who won the 2020 Champion Hurdle and who’s been placed in that race the last two years.
<b>Love Envoi</b>, a winner at the Festival last year can’t be ruled out either as she’ll absolutely love the ground.
It’s a very tough call but some of <b>Honeysuckle’s</b> best performances have come at the Festival and her 3-3 record here just tilts things in her favour. If you can get 11-2 about <b>Epatante</b> then she looks a solid each-way alternative.
4.50 The Fred Winter
If ever there’s a race to have a punt on long-priced outsiders at the Festival this is it. In the last ten years we’ve had three winners at 33-1, two at 25-1 and one at 80-1!
Incredibly Yer Man Willie Mullins is yet to train the winner, though he has been knocking on the door.
So bearing in mind the average SP of winners, we need to cast our net far and wide.
Two other points to consider: Gordon Elliot has won the race twice in the last five years and Irish-trained runners have won it five years in a row.
Possibles for the short-list are the Elliot pair <b>Ludus</b> (28-1) and <b>Jazzy Matty</b> (14-1) and <b>Sir Allen</b> (11-1), who’s shown good form on testing ground. Jessie Harrington’s <b>Mighty Mo Missouri</b> (25-1) is another long-shot to consider each-way.
5.30 National Hunt Chase
Messrs Mullins (W) and Elliot have dominated this in the past decade, with six victories altogether. Mullins saddles the red-hot even-money favourite Gaillard du Mesnil<b></b>, who looks the likeliest winner, but at 6-1 Elliot’s <b>Chemical Energy</b><b></b>, who won at Cheltenham at the October meeting, has to be backed each-way.
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If my tips/analysis help you to find a winner or two-(hopefully they will!), or if you have simply enjoyed reading the Guide, then please feel free to hit the ‘Donate’ button as it‘s all unpaid work. All contributions gratefully received!
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-55095155979131047262022-06-16T10:26:00.002+01:002022-06-16T10:26:32.731+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to Royal Ascot 2022 Day Three<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK820xUXtPA1Yp6151TPVIWAK4t8A9HygLth7Prj7a_T5V06BFBGhlQwX1zaQNm25WSWhhegtwtXM9HdEwMKm0j6uveCcQ4kyQkrzHtdKohtMP_bp4DbUj9DpB90SThnyoYx9wpusRhyGj1eqX5f2IFljzV9TQlxRCD0sGkUOv628ZXyXPvQ/s259/black%20caviar%20ascot.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK820xUXtPA1Yp6151TPVIWAK4t8A9HygLth7Prj7a_T5V06BFBGhlQwX1zaQNm25WSWhhegtwtXM9HdEwMKm0j6uveCcQ4kyQkrzHtdKohtMP_bp4DbUj9DpB90SThnyoYx9wpusRhyGj1eqX5f2IFljzV9TQlxRCD0sGkUOv628ZXyXPvQ/s320/black%20caviar%20ascot.jpg"/></a></div>
Another good day for the IP Guide yesterday with wins for Dramatist (5-2) and Dark Shift (13-2 from 11s), a place for Maria Branwell at 9s and each-way selection Tempus (40-1 in the morning) third in the Royal Hunt Cup. Here are my thoughts for Thursday.
2.30 David Loughnane came very close to winning this last year but looks to have a good chance of going one better with WALBANK. THE ANTARCTIC looks well drawn in 10 and could be the main danger, while PILLOW TALK, in receipt of a handy 3lbs fillies allowance, has a definite each-way claims for trainer Karl Burke, who landed the Queen Mary yesterday.
3.05 It's a big price (33-1), but given his record in the race (6 wins), Mark Johnston's sole representative ACHNAMARA has to go on the each-way shortlist for the King George V. Charlie Hills landed the Royal Hunt Cup yesterday and his runner iNVERNESS, who won his maiden on good-to-firm, is another to consider for a place at big odds.
3.40 It's a very open Ribblesdale but MAGICAL LAGOON bypassed the Oaks for this and rates the likeliest winner.
4.20 A win for STRADIVARIUS will bring the Ascot roof down, but will he do it? A three-times winner of the Gold Cup, the legendary stayer was only fourth in the race last year when he didn't get the best of runs. No eight-year old has won the Blue Riband event since 1900 so the stats are against him but against that he is a very special horse and you couldn't put it past him. KYPRIOS has an obvious favourite's chance if he stays the trip while PRINCESS ZOE, second last year, looks quite solid each-way. At very big odds (66-1) EARLOFTHEOTSWOLDS, who has good form at the track over jumps ,may be overpriced from an place perspective.
5.00 So many with chances but well-drawn CD winners ATRIUM and WANEES are the each-way suggestions.
5.35 The Queen may be watching at home but she looks likely to have a winner to cheer on
as REACH FOR THE MOON should be hard to beat in the Hampton Court. Jane Chapple-Hyam's runners have been in good form this week and CLAYMORE could be next best.
6.10 Horses drawn high are likely to prove the solution to this 7f event; it was won by a horse drawn 31 last year, while yesterday the 7f finale saw 40-1 shot Rising Star (drawn 17) narrowly prevail over another 40-1 shot Random Harvest, in stall 22. DANCE FEVER is the widest drawn in 31, while in 30 we have SILENT FILM, a winner of his last three starts. OUZO is 27 is another to consider, he ran very well in the Royal Hunt Cup last year and jockey Saffie Osborne was onboard Random Harvest yesterday.
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-20809395065112865042022-06-15T09:49:00.001+01:002022-06-15T09:49:56.037+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to Royal Ascot 2022 (Day Two)
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjryD1inhW3lV5xOfRWGwAD0MQ7n2ZWRtMTaOrsrVmYuWvkDmmAcPD6CAArHYigJ5E4HOhoH_nWaohEIqdUpJnlooXcbAFiuehVnoT1h4bkoIS4pwrdgqGJzwF49AYvYfsjCCjx-fYXV9S3dqL4QXKY_TPCA4u8VkjfTLicvXoKVkN4kkLEcQ/s162/queen%20races.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="121" data-original-width="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjryD1inhW3lV5xOfRWGwAD0MQ7n2ZWRtMTaOrsrVmYuWvkDmmAcPD6CAArHYigJ5E4HOhoH_nWaohEIqdUpJnlooXcbAFiuehVnoT1h4bkoIS4pwrdgqGJzwF49AYvYfsjCCjx-fYXV9S3dqL4QXKY_TPCA4u8VkjfTLicvXoKVkN4kkLEcQ/s320/queen%20races.jpg"/></a></div>
After a great opening day with three winners and some good placed selections, here are my thoughts on Day Two. Good luck with your punting!
ROYAL ASCOT DAY TWO
Neil Clark
2.30 The Queen Mary is a tricky start to the day with 21 runners for the 5f Group 2 for juvenile fillies. U.S. trainer Wesley Ward has won the race four times so LOVE REIGNS obviously needs to be on our shortlist, though she could have been better drawn. DRAMATISED is well drawn and has to be respected along with MARIE BRANWELL who has won both her starts. At longer odds LADY TILBURY, ridden by last year’s winning jockey Gary Carroll, is another who should run well.
3.05 Aidan O’Brien has a great record in the Queen’s Vase, so his sole representative this year, ANCHORAGE, (he had five in at the five-day stage), has to be of each-way interest at around 15-2. AL QAREEM was staying on strongly at the finish over 1m4f at York last time and is another possible.
3.40 BAY BRIDGE, the even-money favourite in the Prince of Wales for trainer Michael Stoute (who won the race in 2018 and 2019) will be a hard nut to crack, as he looked very good last time in the Brigadier Gerard, but we can expect a bold show from the Japanese raider SHAHRYAR, who won the Sheema Classic in Dubai in March.
4.20 MOTHER EARTH, a Group One winner, has to be seriously considered for this Group 2 while at longer odds (12-1), German raider NOVEMBA looks interesting from an each-way perspective. The filly ran really well in a Group One over the same distance at the meeting last year, only being headed in the final furlong on heavy ground so a combination of the drop in class and better going should in theory see her getting even closer.
5.00 Charlie Hills has a good record in the Royal Hunt Cup cavalry charge so you have to have his DARK SHIFT on your short-list especially given that he’s a CD winner whose form at Ascot has generally been excellent. TEMPUS is 1-1 over CD and could be overpriced at 40-1 representing the Watson-Doyle combo who landed the Coventry yesterday, while the well-drawn PERCY’S LAD is another outsider to consider for a place.Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-48716121232481453622022-06-14T13:51:00.003+01:002022-06-14T14:10:59.126+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to Royal Ascot 2022
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THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER’S GUIDE TO ROYAL ASCOT 2022
Neil Clark
DAY TWO:
TUESDAY
2.30 The unbeaten BAAEED is a very short odds-on favourite but is very hard to oppose after his romp in the Lockinge last time.
3.05 Aidan O’Brien is the go-to man in the Coventry with nine wins and the unbeaten BLACKBEARD looks to have a strong chance of adding to his tally. PERSIAN FORCE looks like the main danger.
3.40 An electrifying renewal of the King’s Stand with Aussie raider NATURE STRIP narrowly preferred to American speed ace GOLDEN PAL on the basis that the course and trip may suit him better.
There are plenty of decent sprinters available at big prices for each-way alternatives to the market leaders including Czech raider PONNTOS, a winner last time at Longchamp, and EQUILATERAL, who might be overpriced at 66-1 considering he was second in the race two years ago and goes well fresh.
4.20. 2000 Guineas winner COROBEUS is a worthy favourite and should win barring accidents. NEW ENERGY is a big price (40-1) but was a fast-finishing close second behind Native Trail in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time so could be worth an each-way investment.
5.00 Favourite BRING ON THE NIGHT, ridden by Ryan Moore, looks like the one they all have to beat, given trainer Willie Mullins’ good record in the race, but there are plenty in with each-way shouts including last year’s winner RESHOUN, who looks good value at around 12-1. Trainer Ian Williams is in fine form (had a 33-1 winner at York on Saturday), won the race in both 2019 and 2021, and his charge is able to race off the same mark as when successful 12 months ago.
5.35 John Gosden has had a great record in the Wolferton down the years so his runner HARROVIAN, currently available at 12-1 could represent some decent value. All of Frankie Dettori’s mount‘s career wins have come on good-to-firm which is what the going will be at Royal Ascot today.
6.10 OKITA SOUSHI has attracted market support, backed in from 12s to 7-1 so Joseph O’Brien’s runner could be the answer to the Day One finale.
Good luck with your punting!Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-17064614860834147842022-04-08T23:21:00.001+01:002022-04-08T23:21:26.960+01:002022 Grand National Intelligent Punter's Guide
2022 GRAND NATIONAL INTELLIGENT PUNTER'S GUIDE
Neil Clark.
Yes, it's that time of the year again. Who's going to win the world's greatest steeplechase? (well, a horse obviously, but which one?) With 40 runners to chose from it might seem a daunting task but if we bear in mind some key factors it can help us narrow down the field.
1. Age. No horse older than 12 has won since 1923; none aged 7 since 1940. The most popular ages for winners in recent years have been 8 or 9, though 10 or 11 year olds did hold sway between 2010-2014.
2. Form in key trials. The Grand National is run over the extreme distance of 4 miles two and a half furlongs so it is usually makes sense to look for horses with form in other long-distance chases, particularly the Irish and Scottish Nationals which take place at the same time of the year.
3. Jumping ability. Yes, the Aintree fences have been modified but they still take some jumping and you ideally wouldn't want to be siding with a horse with too many 'F's in its form figures.
4. Weight. While carrying in excess of 11st isn't as big a negative as it used to be, as last year's race showed it's still an advantage to be somewhere in the 10st bracket. Since the legendary Red Rum in the 1970s only one horse (Many Clouds) has carried over 11st 6lbs to victory.
5. Previous experience of the National fences. Again, it might not be as important as it was back in the days when Bechers Brook was genuinely terrifying, but it is still an advantage as we saw from the Foxhunters and the Topham this week. The 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th from last year's race all return and you'd expect at least one of them to make the frame this time.
Now let's take a closer look at all the runners...
**** A likely winner
*** Each-way chance
** Outside chance
* No hoper
1. MINELLA TIMES. 11st 10lbs Odds: 10-1 ***
Last year's impressive winner under Rachael Blackmore, but carries a stone and a half more this time and has failed to complete on both starts this term. Could well revive returned to scene of greatest triumph but at the weights still faces a difficult task attempting to become only second dual winner since Red Rum.
3. DELTA WORK 11st 9lbs. Odds 11-1.***
Trainer Gordon Elliott followed the Cheltenham cross-country -Aintree path with his two previous winners (Silver Birch and Tiger Roll) so no surprise to see this regular Grade 1 performer attract market support since his Festival win last month. While he has to be respected, he may just have his work cut out to win bearing in mind only one horse has carried more than 11st 6lbs to victory since Red Rum.
3. SCHOOL BOY HOURS 10st 5lbs; Odds 18-1. **
A late reserve; has nice weight and was staying on when winning the 3m Paddy Power at Leopardstown at Christmas; enthusiasm tempered though by his run at Cheltenham last time when he almost fell and was pulled up when well-fancied.
4. ANY SECOND NOW 11st 8lbs Odds 10-1.*** and a half
Badly hampered last year by a faller at the 12th but still rallied strongly to finish third, 7lbs higher now but laid out for this by shrewd connections (trainer Walsh won with Papillon in 2000 and has had other placed horses); with better luck in running has to go close, very likely to make the frame though his weight may just prevent him winning.
5. RUN WILD FRED 11st 7lbs. Odds 16-1 ***
If you wanted to back a horse to finish second you could do far worse than this fellow, as he has finished in the runner-up position in six of his last seven outings, including in last year's Irish National and last time out in the 3m5f NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Definite place possibilities again.
6. LOSTINTRANSLATION 11st 6lbs. Odds 80-1 **
Looked the coming force when an impressive winner of the Betfair Chase in November 2019 but it was two years before he won again, talented on his day but will have to step up considerably on recent efforts if he's not going to be lost in this big field.
7. BRAHMA BULL 11st 6lbs. Odds 100-1 **
Third in the Hennessy albeit a long way behind the first two, but poor since then and has failed to complete on last two outings including last time out in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Better ground may bring an improvement but it's hard to be too bullish.
8. BURROWS SAINT 11st 5lbs Odds: 25-1 ***and a half
Well fancied last year and travelled like the winner for much of the way only running out of steam about 2f from home, eventually finishing fourth. 1lbs lower this time so definite place possibilities again, though might have a job reversing the Bobbyjo form with Any Second Now.
9. MOUNT IDA 11st 5lbs. Odds 33-1 **
Won the Kim Muir at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival and generally consistent but below par in the Mares' chase at this year's Festival when she jumped right throughout. Could well bounce back with a good run but others look more solid.
10. LONGHOUSE POET 11st 4lbs. Odds 16-1 ***and a half.
Interesting runner for Martin Brassil who won the race in 2006 with Numbersixvalverde, who also came to Aintree having won that year Thyestes Chase at Gowran. His last run, a prep race over inadequate trip over hurdles can be ignored; the only two occasions he's raced over 3m plus over fences he won, staying on well each time and it's likely the longer trip on Saturday could bring further improvement.
11. FIDDLERONTHEROOF 11st 4lbs Odds 16-1 ***
Yet to finish out of the first three in ten runs over fences so very consistent, a close second in this year's Hennessy with the front two 28 lengths clear of the field was good form, needs to prove his stamina for this but is the right age (8) and no surprise to see him go well.
12. TWO FOR GOLD 11st 3lbs. Odds 50-1 **
Won valuable Listed race over 2m6f on heavy ground at Lingfield in January, and then second in a Grade 1 at Ascot; clearly in fine fettle and can't entirely dismiss but going into the unknown stamina-wise and may need more rain to be seen at best effect.
13. SANTINI 11st 2lbs. Odds 66-1.**
Narrowly failed to win the 2020 Gold Cup when with Nicky Henderson, clearly not the force of old but as a consequence slipped nearly 20lbs in the handicap and his generally safe jumping (has never fallen) means he can't be entirely ruled out.
14. SAMCRO 11st 1lbs. Odds 100-1 *
Owner Michael O'Leary was right when he warned us this once over-hyped equine was not the second coming of Jesus Christ, his form has tailed off and would be a real surprise were he to win (though it would be quite a good story!).
15. ESCARIA TEN 11st 1lbs. Odds 18-1.***
Best run for a year was when narrowly beaten in the Bobbyjo by Any Second Now in February, staying-on third in the 2021 National Hunt Chase so stamina shouldn't be a problem, solid place possibilities with a clear round.
16. GOOD BOY BOBBY 10st 13lbs. Odds 40-1. **
Won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby last Christmas but stamina for this has to be taken on trust as 3m1f is the furthest he's raced over.
17. ROMAIN DE SENAM 10st 5lbs. Odds 150-1.*
A late reserve who was always at the rear when pulled up in the Midlands National last month with still a long way to go; that doesn't inspire confidence for this marathon.
18. COKO BEACH 10st 13lbs. Odds 80-1.*
Well beaten in the Bobbyjo last time out and we've had no 7-year-old winner of the Grand National since 1940 so hard to be enthusiastic that he'll pay for the summer beach holiday.
19. DE RASHER COUNTER 10st 12lbs. Odds 66-1.**
Long absence from 2020 to 2022; comeback run was quite encouraging and is able to run off the same mark as when winning the 2019 Hennessy; has a tough task though on only second run back and the odds are probably against him bringing home the bacon.
20. KILDISART. 10st 12llbs. Odds 50-1 ***
One of his best runs was on good ground at Aintree on Grand National Day 2019 when he landed the 3m Handicap chase, staying on strongly; comeback 4th at Newbury was eyecatching; still has to prove he has stamina for this but interesting outsider off nice weight.
21. DISCORAMA 10st 11lbs. Odds 28-1.****
Drying surface will suit last year's 7th who not only will found the ground more suitable but is able to race off a 3lbs lower mark; definitely one for the each-way shortlist.
22. TOP VILLE BEN. 10st 11lbs. Odds 33-1.**
Trainer told me in 2019 he thought this smart performer might be a National horse; had injury problems but back in good form this season; a heavy fall when racing prominently in the Becher Chase over these fences in December is the main negative ( good on his day but has fallen in 4 of his 19 races).
23. ENJOY D'ALLEN. 10st 11lbs.Odds 14-1. ****
Was a staying on third in last year's Irish National and that makes him very interesting for this stamina-wise, staying on again over 3m on latest run and has to go on the short-list as also ticks weight and age boxes.
24. ANIBALE FLY. 10st 11lbs. Odds 100-1**
Has been a regular in this in recent years, 4th and 5th in 2018 and 2019 but pulled up last year and best chance of flying home looks to have gone.
25.DINGO DOLLAR. 10st 11lbs. Odds 40-1.***
His good 2nd in last year's Scottish National when making most of the running makes him of interest; pulled up here in the 2020 Grand Sefton but could well do better on sounder surface and may outperform his odds .
26. FREEWHEELIN DYLAN 10st 10lbs. Odds 66-1 ***
Was a freewheelin, shock 150-1 winner of the Irish National last Easter when virtually making all the running; trainer said aftereards summer ground was the key to the horse and if the going continues to dry out he might well be overpriced.
27. CLASS CONTI 10st 10lbs. Odds 150-1. *
Tailed off in the race last year and nothing in his three disappointing runs this season suggest he is likely to do much better.
28. NOBLE YEARS. 10st 10lbs. Odds 50-1.*
Bids to give retiring amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen a dream send-off to his career; but the stats suggest he's up against it as there has been no 7-year-old winner for 82 years.
29. MIGHTY THUNDER. 10st 10lbs. Odds 33-1.****
Scottish National winner in 2021 who has pulled up in last two starts; but this is his time of the year and his trainer does have a great record at the meeting (won the 2017 Grand National) so has to be shortlisted.
30. CLOTH CAP. 10st 10lbs. Odds 20-1 ***
Favourite last year and was travelling well when abruptly pulling up; has had wind op; comes with risks attached but is handicapped to run well on drying ground he'll like.
31. SNOW LEOPARDESS. 10st 9lbs. Odds 10-1 ***
Jumped superbly from the front when winning the Becher Chase over the National fences in December, has further to go now but was staying on over 3m6f in the National Hunt Chase last year so reasons to believe she will stay; obvious short-list material but may have preferred a bit more rain.
32. AUGUSTA GOLD. 10st 9lbs. Odds 80-1.
Last run, when 2nd at Drogheda best for some time; just touched off over 3m4f once; stamina may be ok but overall profile suggests others more likely.
33. COMMODORE. 10st 5lbs.Odds 22-1. **
A late reserve; impressive 15l winner over 3m2f at Cheltenham on only start this season in December; could go well but lack of a run in same calendar year usually a disadvantage if looking for a National winner.
34. DEISE ALBA. 10st 8lbs. Odds 66-1. **
If this was at Sandown he'd be a contender, was a good 2nd over hurdles at Aintree at 25-1 in 2021 but did pull up on the other occasion and others look more solid.
35. BLACKLION 10st 8lbs Odds 100-1 **
Admirable veteran who was 4th in 2017 and 6th last year at 50--1 and has also won a Becher; while he may well outperform his odds again no teenager has won this since 1923 and drying ground may not help his cause (last three wins on heavy).
36. POKER PARTY. 10st 8lbs. Odds 100-1 *
Well beaten (twice) and pulled-up in three runs since returning from a long absence; stamina also unproven so a celebatory party unlikely.
37. DEATH DUTY. 10st 7bs. Odds 50-1.**
Awful name but did stay on well when winning over 3m4f at Punchestown on penultimate run; not ruled out off nice weight but overall profile suggests others more likely.
38. DOMAINE DE L'ISLE 10st 7lbs. Odds 100-1.**
Did finish a plugging on fourth in the Becher in December as a 66-1 shot, but didn't show up at all in Eider Chase on last run; not entirely impossible he'll outperform his odds but likely that on drying ground it might all happen a bit too quickly for him.
39. ECLAIR SURF 10st 6lbs. Odds 11-1 ***.
Was an impressive winner of the Classic Chase at Warwick(won by One for Arthur in 2017) and just beaten by the subsequent impressive Scottish National winner in the Eider; that's good marathon chase form; obvious shortlist material; the only negative is that he has fallen twice.
40. FORTESCUE 10st 6lbs. Odds 18-1.***
Just sneaks in at number 40; progressive over 3m/3m2f; could go well off his low weight if taking to the fences but still stamina for 4m-plus is unproven.Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-40168348561791536912022-03-15T11:30:00.004+00:002022-03-15T11:38:56.704+00:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to the 2022 Cheltenham Racing Festival<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgL8JAsb64Eaadv4srnHaFoXQVyN6Ay1CODhk7nPuwmXu9qAIZq2-rfZW-hcbC78WyGW9WMEb4JMOfSv4CDUsg0Q3ZdIs7G3iE6HDc2EXhoNeC7uEobfkx9P2K95C5zWWdiRLu1APGh0ZnfC7lOVJqCXFlXcCjeSt-eNvXII-p867Ri4lpFow=s129" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="89" data-original-width="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgL8JAsb64Eaadv4srnHaFoXQVyN6Ay1CODhk7nPuwmXu9qAIZq2-rfZW-hcbC78WyGW9WMEb4JMOfSv4CDUsg0Q3ZdIs7G3iE6HDc2EXhoNeC7uEobfkx9P2K95C5zWWdiRLu1APGh0ZnfC7lOVJqCXFlXcCjeSt-eNvXII-p867Ri4lpFow=s320"/></a></div>
By Neil Clark
After a year racing ‘behind closed doors’ how great it is that crowds will be back at this week’s Cheltenham racing festival, the Olympics of National Hunt racing.
The roar from the 60,000 or so spectators will be quite something as the starter lowers his flag to get the Supreme Novices’ underway on Tuesday, with 28 races for punters to look forward to over the next four days. But who are the likely winners and how can we get one over the bookies?
To help us tilt the percentages in our favour, it is important to keep in mind the following key factors when deciding what to back.
1. There really is no form like previous Cheltenham Festival form. Year after year we see horses who have won or run well at previous Festivals do the same again. Even if horses haven’t run before at the Festival, previous course form is a definite advantage. Look at Day One in 2020. Put the Kettle On, our 16-1 Arkle winning tip, had won over course and distance at the November meeting. Then a year later Henry de Bromhead’s mare won the Champion Chase. Imperial Aura, who won the novices’ handicap chase in 2020, had finished second over course and distance on his previous start. The horse that had beaten him in January, Simply the Betts, went on to win a chase on Day 3 of the Festival. Last year Shiskin followed up his Supreme Novices’ win of 2020 by landing the Arkle, while Honeysuckle who won the Champion Hurdle had won the previous year’s Mares’ Hurdle. In short, the best guide to what’s going to win the top races at the 2022 Festival is to look at races from the 2021 Festival.
2. At modern Festivals, a few big yards tend to dominate especially in the championship races. At the 2018 Festival 60% of the races were won by just three stables: Mullins, Elliott and Henderson. Another trainer to keep on the right side of is Henry De Bromhead who won six races at the Festival last year- and became the first trainer to win the ‘Big Three’, the Champion Hurdle, The Champion Chase and the Gold Cup in the same year. Mid-range English trainers do still pick up the odd race but generally have struggled in recent years with Irish handlers so dominant. Last year it was 23-5 to the Emerald Isle and Saturday’s 1-2 for Ireland in Sandown’s Imperial Cup doesn’t instil confidence that the tide is about to turn this year.
3. Age. These days the Festival’s top races are not usually a place for ‘golden oldies’; there’s been no winner of the Gold Cup older than nine since 1998, and no winner of the Ryanair older than nine since 2011. The stats for the Champion Chase are a little better for the ‘oldies‘ though with three horses older than 9 prevailing since 2014.
4. Going. Nowadays because of watering policy and good drainage you are unlikely to get the extremes might have had in the past with the ground usually the soft side of good or thereabouts. The going for the opening day of this year‘s Festival is good-to-soft with the only forecast rain of the week coming on Wednesday. How much we get will have to be seen, if it is heavy and prolonged as predicted then that’s good news for horses who prefer more testing conditions, if they’re running on Wednesday or Thursday.
5. Don’t forget Fakenham!
You don’t have to have a flutter in Festival races if you don’t fancy it, and there will be other, possibly even better opportunities at other jumps meetings taking place this week. So while it’s great to have a winner at Cheltenham, remember, a 5-1 winner there pays no more than a 5-1 winner at Fakenham (even though the boasting rights may not be quite the same).
Day One: (Tuesday)
The feature race is the Champion Hurdle at 3.30. The intriguing runner is <b>Appreciate It </b>who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since winning last year’s Supreme Novices’ by 24l. That would normally be a negative but master-trainer Willie Mullins’s record with Quevega shows if anyone’s able to get a horse to win at the Festival after a year’s absence it’s him. That said the 7lbs sex allowance that he has to concede to last year’s winner <b>Honeysuckle</b> does tilt things in the reigning champion’s favour. Henry de Bromhead’s mare has won all fifteen of her career starts and once again is likely to prove very tough to beat although she‘s no working-man’s price at 4-7. <b>Epatante </b>won the race in 2019 and was third last year and given that she also gets the mare’s allowance could be overpriced at 18-1 from an each-way perspective.
In the Arkle at 2.10 the each-way value could be <b>Magic Daze</b>, currently available at around 14-1. Henry De Bromhead has won the race twice since 2010 and landed it in 2020 with 16-1 shot Put the Kettle On, which gave our Intelligent Punter’s Guide for that year a great start. Once again his entry gets the valuable 7lbs mares allowance. Willie Mullins has taken this prize four times since 2015 and so you have to put <b>Blue Lord</b> on your shortlist. He‘s unbeaten in three runs over fences and was staying on in second behind Appreciate It when falling at the last in last year’s Supreme Novices.
<a href="https://sputniknews.com/20210315/the-sputnik-intelligent-punters-guide-to-the-2021-cheltenham-racing-festival-part-one-1082350099.html">Last year</a> we tipped up <b>Vintage Clouds</b> the 28-1 winner of the Ultima (2.50),
citing the Sue Smith trained gelding’s excellent record in the race. He was third in 2018 off a mark of 141, second in 2019 off 144, eighth in 2020 off 151 and won last year off 143. This year he’s back up to 144 so is handicapped to go close again and at 16-1 he makes each-way appeal, though at the age of 12 winning again might just be beyond him. The Irish surprisingly don’t have a good record in this so for once it may pay to focus on the home contingent. The drying ground should suit <b>Tea Clipper</b> who ran very well at last year’s Festival over hurdles when a staying on third in the Coral Cup at 33-1. He’s attracted support from 16-1 to 11-1 following the 48 hour declarations.
Day Two: Wednesday
In the Champion Chase (3.30), it’s hard to oppose the machine that is <b>Shiskin</b> from a ‘win’ perspective, but with rain forecast on the day then <b>Put the Kettle On</b>, who’s done us a huge favour at the last two festivals does make each-way appeal. ‘Polly’ is 4 from 5 at Cheltenham, like Shishkin has won at the last two Festivals and the 22-1 currently on offer consequently looks too big.
In the Cross Country Chase (4.10) <b>Tiger Roll</b> goes for his fourth victory in the race and his sixth Festival success of all. He’s likely to be tough nut to crack again (he won the race last year doing handstands) but that is factored into his current price of 6-4. Win, lose or draw let’s hope he comes back safe to loud cheers on what could well be his last race before retirement.
In the Coral Cup (2.50) previous course form is usually a big advantage with 10 of the last 12 winners all having run at Prestbury Park before.
Last year <b>Grand Roi</b> was sent off favourite but got checked at a crucial stage when rallying and in first time headgear could be worth chancing again each way at 16-1 for Gordon Elliot who saddled the second in 2020 and the winner in 2016. <b>The Shunter</b> won at the Festival over fences last year and is respected too given his course form.
Thursday and Friday to follow….
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-56459894285779504042021-08-30T16:13:00.003+01:002021-08-30T16:16:00.037+01:00My new book Champion Jump Jockeys 1945 to Present Day, available for pre-order If of interest, there's still time to pre-order,(with £5 off the published price),my new racing book, 'Champion Jump Horse Racing Jockeys 1945 to Present Day'.
Details <a href="https://www.pen-and-sword.co.uk/Champion-Jump-Horse-Racing-Jockeys-Hardback/p/19200">here:</a>
<a href="https://www.pen-and-sword.co.uk/Champion-Jump-Horse-Racing-Jockeys-Hardback/p/19200"></a>
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-81704950602339982972017-12-13T20:51:00.002+00:002017-12-13T20:51:25.911+00:00How you can Donate to my Anti-Stalker Legal Fund by post<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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If you would prefer to donate to my AntiStalker Legal Fund by post- you can send donations to P.O.Box 922, OXFORD OX1 9RL. Many thanks to all who've donated so far.<img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_GB/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" />
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Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-56144548338049237822017-10-21T10:52:00.001+01:002017-10-21T10:53:34.208+01:00The Intelligent Punter's Guide to Champions Day <form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">THE INTELLIGENT PUNTER'S GUIDE TO CHAMPIONS DAY- THE
RICHEST DAY IN BRITISH RACING<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">By Neil Clark</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This Saturday at Ascot racecourse in <st1:place w:st="on">Berkshire</st1:place>,
the British Flat season, which began back in March, reaches its finale with a
glittering six-race card worth over £4m in prize money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Some of the best horses (and jockeys) in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>
will be on show, for an event which was first held in 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The first race, to be run at 1.25pm is the Group 2 Long Distance
Cup run over 2m. <b>Order of St George</b>, trained in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ireland</st1:place></st1:country-region>, is the
favourite and deservedly so, but he was beaten as an odds-on shot in the race
twelve months ago and isn't bomb-proof. The ultra-game <b>Big Orange</b> and
the three-year-old <b>Stradivarius</b> will be tough opponents
although both would probably prefer faster ground. The improving <b>Desert
Skyline</b>, winner last time out of the Doncaster Cup and last year’s winner <b>Sheikhzayedroad</b> (a
16-1 shot this time) could represent some each-way value.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The race is followed at 2.00 by the Group I Champions Sprint, run
over 6f. Here course and distance winner <b>Caravaggio </b>could just
have the edge over Harry Angel. Quiet Reflection and The Tin Man are
others for the short-list.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">In the 1m4f Fillies and Mares’ Stakes at 2.40, last year’s
winner <b>Journey,</b> a filly who seems to save her best for this
time of year should prove very hard to beat. In the QEII, one of Europe’s most
prestigious mile races, due off at 3.15, the favourite <b>Ribchester</b>stands
out on the form book, but if the ground deteriorates any further then an
each-way interest in 25-1 shot <b>Here Comes When</b> – a winner in
the mud at Goodwood earlier in the year, could be prudent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The most valuable race of the day is the 1m2f Group One Champions
Stakes, at 3.50, worth £737,230 to the winner. The 7-4 favourite <b>Cracksman</b> has
a lot going for him, having finished third in the English Derby and bypassed
the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe (worth £2.4m to the winner) to wait for this. At
longer odds (7-1), the French Derby winner <b>Brametot</b> makes
plenty of appeal, while 25-1 shot <b>Desert Encounter</b>, who’s run well
in some top races earlier this year, looks overpriced.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The final race of the day is a Class 2 handicap over 1m,
where <b>Zabeel Prince</b> a winner of all three of his starts this
year, is likely to start favourite. <b>Firmament,</b> who was third
in this race last year off a 5lbs higher mark, and <b>Speculative Bid</b>,
a staying-on 7<sup>th</sup> over a shorter distance at the course earlier
this month, could be the each-way value<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-50509185174252927632016-12-10T08:57:00.001+00:002017-12-11T15:25:28.885+00:00Support my legal appeal against Oliver Kamm, Rupert Murdoch and the Times newspaper<form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" method="post" target="_top">
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Many thanks to all those who have contributed to my legal appeal via this blog. I have now also launched on Crowdfund site Fundrazr.com. My aim is to raise £7,500 there by early January, to get to my £10K target so I can launch legal actions on a number of fronts against my stalker Oliver Kamm and his complicit employers, the Times newspaper and its owner Rupert Murdoch. <img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_GB/i/scr/pixel.gif" width="1" /><br />
<a href="https://fundrazr.com/41BlC1">Here </a>is my Crowdfund page. All contributions, large and small are gratefully received. If you are unable to donate, please do spread the word! Many, many thanks!<br />
<br />
UPDATE: A write-up of this story and Kamm's obsessive stalking campaigns can be read <a href="http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/creepy-london-times-moron-cyber-stalks-leading-uk-russia-expert/ri18040">here. </a><br />
Kamm and his arrogant employers clearly think they're above the law. Let's prove them wrong! <br />
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FURTHER UPDATE: 10th Feb 2017: Over £4k now raised here and via Fundrazr. Please help me get up to £10k ASAP so I can launch my legal actions. Many thanks to all who have contributed so far.<br />
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FURTHER UPDATE: 24th April 2017. A very big 'Thank you' to everyone who has helped me reach my £10K target. Your support is hugely appreciated!. Having reached my first target, I have now begun legal action against Oliver Kamm and his employers - who by now will have received letters from my lawyers. It is quite likely that a lengthy court battle will ensue, so until the matter is resolved, contributions to my legal fund are still gratefully accepted and appreciated. Many thanks again to everyone who has supported me. <br />
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FURTHER UPDATE: 12th June 2017. Over £10.4K has now been raised, but matter not yet resolved (still at the pre-court exchange of lawyers' letters stage) and until then, your contributions are gratefully accepted and appreciated. Many thanks again to everyone who has supported me.<br />
<br />
LATEST UPDATE: 21st August 2017: Over £13K now raised, which has been an amazing effort. A very big 'Thanks' to everyone who has contributed. It looks very likely that we'll be heading to court as the matter is not yet resolved and so a lot more money will be needed. The 'other side' will be hoping I drop my case but I won't until I get redress for what I have been put through. So please help me get justice and turn the tables on my stalker/serial defamer and his vicariously liable employers! All contributions, large or small, are gratefully accepted and appreciated. Many thanks again to everyone who has supported me! <br />
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LATEST UPDATE: 4th December 2017: Oliver Kamm has now been sued for libel and harassment. My counsel has advised me not to serve the writ- already lodged at the court in the summer- against his employers and instead focus the action on Kamm. He believes this would have a number of advantages. It is advice that I have decided very reluctantly to accept- (given the arrogant way The Times -and News UK- arrogantly ignored all my very reasonable requests),- but I do not rule out Kamm's employers- including Rupert Murdoch- being brought into a legal action at a later date if this matter is not resolved satisfactorily. We now have over £17K raised but legal costs have been high and I will be stepping up fundraising to pay for the court costs which could be considerable. All contributions, large or small, are gratefully accepted and appreciated. Many thanks again to everyone who has supported me.</form>
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-62354721519021616482016-09-30T17:48:00.001+01:002016-09-30T17:48:26.800+01:00Keep Left Jeremy Corbyn, It's the Key to Your Success <span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">My latest column for Sputnik:</span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><b>For a man who we're
repeatedly told is "unelectable," Jeremy Corbyn seems pretty good at
winning elections. He's been an MP since 1983, winning his seat eight times at
a general election - and in 2015, he increased his vote in Islington North by
5.8%.<br />
<br />
Against all the odds — and all the predictions of the
"punditocracy," he was elected Labour leader last summer and
increased his vote percentage again when challenged for the leadership
this summer. That achievement was all the more impressive when you consider the
large number of Corbyn supporting members who were prevented
from voting in the poll by Labour's NEC and the party's
Compliance Unit.</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">You can read the whole article<a href="https://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160928/1045798508/uk-corbyn-labour-success.html"> here</a><br />
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<!--[endif]--></span>Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-14584147664074175022016-09-23T18:18:00.003+01:002016-09-23T18:20:33.114+01:00Edward Snowden: The hypocrisy is in the (Washington) PostMy latest article- for RT.com OpEdge<br />
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<b>Consider the following: A newspaper receives documents about mass state surveillance from a whistleblower. It publishes a selection of the material. It is awarded a Pulitzer Prize for its reporting of the leaks.</b><br />
<b>Then, a couple of years later, having made money from the whistleblower and gained a prestigious award - it publishes an editorial arguing that the whistleblower- who had to leave his country, his family and loved ones and claim political asylum in another - does not deserve an official pardon.</b><br />
<b>Whatever your views are on whistleblowers, I’m sure you’ll agree that the newspaper has behaved pretty reprehensibly. We can talk about hypocrisy, betrayal, double standards, treachery - and also think of quite a few unprintable words to describe what the paper has done.</b><br />
<b>But really, the behavior of the Washington Post - the newspaper in question - should not surprise us.</b><br />
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You can read the whole piece<a href="https://www.rt.com/op-edge/360167-edward-snowden-hypocrisy-post/"> here.</a></div>
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-66308239695333417502016-09-07T18:34:00.001+01:002016-09-07T18:34:43.101+01:00The Top 10 Western lies about the Syrian conflict<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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My latest OpEdge for RT.com<br />
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<b>Here are 10 of the worst lies that have been peddled by the West regarding Syria, with the aim of giving people living in Western countries an entirely false view of the conflict that has been raging in the Middle East country since 2011.</b><br />
<b>As in the case of previous US-led wars against Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya the lies told in relation to the ongoing conflict in Syria have been quite outrageous.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1. The West has failed to intervene in Syria - and that's been the problem</b><br />
<b>This oft-repeated claim (only last week the Washington Post was lamenting 'the disastrous non-intervention in Syria') is a complete inversion of the truth....</b><br />
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You can read the whole piece<a href="https://www.rt.com/op-edge/358507-top-10-western-lies-syrian/"> here.</a><br />
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Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-30258121057408236222016-09-06T15:14:00.000+01:002016-09-06T15:14:03.467+01:00Why Owen Smith is wrong to call for a 2nd EU ReferendumThe latest interview with me on the Mike Parr show on BBC Radio Tees. You can listen <a href="http://bbc.in/2bQRheR">here</a> (item starts c 19mins).Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-61143451442694166052016-09-05T20:38:00.001+01:002016-09-05T20:38:11.102+01:00US exceptionalism: How dare the EU demand US companies pay more tax!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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My latest article for RT.com OpEdge- on the Apple tax affair, the EU Commission and Ireland...<br />
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<b>The most revealing thing about the European Commission's ruling that Apple should pay Ireland up to €13 billion in back taxes has been the indignant reaction from the US.</b><br />
<b>Charles Schumer, described by the BBC as ‘a senior Democratic senator’, said: "This is a cheap money grab by the European Commission, targeting US businesses and the US tax base."</b><br />
<b>Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives thundered: “This decision is awful. Slamming a company with a giant tax bill — years after the fact — sends exactly the wrong message to job creators on both sides of the Atlantic.”</b><br />
<b>The US Treasury slammed the decision as “unfair”. The White House said it was “concerned” about what it described as a “unilateral approach”. Orrin Hatch, chair of the Senate Finance Committee, called the ruling “an extraordinary decision that targets US business by rewriting already existing tax policies.”</b><br />
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You can read the whole article <a href="https://www.rt.com/op-edge/357930-apple-ireland-eu-ttip-tax/">here</a><br />
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Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-73766536518877400732016-08-31T17:13:00.000+01:002016-08-31T17:13:43.099+01:00Holidaying in Nazi Germany: Booklet promotes tourism just before WWIIMy new piece in the Daily Express<br />
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<b>THE aim of this booklet is quite frankly, to persuade you to visit Germany.” Nothing remarkable about that you might think.</b><br />
<b>With its lovely forests, beautiful mountains and historic cities, Germany is a nice country to visit. </b><br />
<b>But the date of the booklet gives one a jolt. It’s 1939 – the year the Second World War started. </b><br />
<b>I’ve got a rare copy of the LNER (London and North Eastern Railway) Germany via Harwich travel guide, written by Bernard Newman, urging people to take their holidays in Nazi Germany. </b><br />
<b>Yes, that’s right, Nazi Germany. “Make 1939 the year you visit Germany” is probably not the best piece of travel advice that’s ever been given, especially if late summer was the time chosen to go. </b><br />
<b>Even so, the LNER booklet is a fascinating read, particularly in light of the dramatic events of September 1939. </b><br />
<b>Here are some extracts: </b><br />
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You can read the whole piece<a href="http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/704697/Nazi-Germany-holiday-booklet-promotes-tourism-WWII"> here.</a></div>
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-75929151324123192862016-08-04T18:33:00.001+01:002016-08-04T18:35:24.936+01:00Milosevic exonerated as the NATO war machine moves on<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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My latest piece- on an unreported story: the exoneration, by the ICTY, of Slobodan Milosevic for the most heinous crimes he was charged with.<b> </b></div>
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<b>The ICTY’s exoneration of the late Slobodan Milosevic, the
former President of Yugoslavia, for war crimes committed in the Bosnia war,
proves again we should take NATO claims regarding its ’official enemies’ not
with a pinch of salt, but a huge lorry load. </b></div>
<b>
</b><b>For the past twenty odd years, neocon commentators and 'liberal
interventionist' pundits have been telling us at every possible opportunity,
that Milosevic (a democratically elected leader in a country where over 20
political parties freely operated) was an evil genocidal dictator who was
to blame for ALL the deaths in the Balkans in the 1990s. Repeat after me in a
robotic voice (while making robotic arm movements): 'Milosevic's genocidal
aggression' 'Milosevic's genocidal aggression'.</b><br />
<b>
</b><b>But the official narrative, just like the one that told us that in 2003, Iraq had WMDs
which could be launched within 45 minutes, was a deceitful one, designed to
justify a regime change-op which the Western elites had long desired.</b><br />
<br />
You can read the whole piece<a href="https://www.rt.com/op-edge/354362-slobodan-milosevic-exonerated-us-nato/"> here. </a><b></b><br />
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Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17766817.post-58937224310969196792016-07-29T20:45:00.001+01:002016-07-29T20:45:16.858+01:00Keeping it Taped: The Golden Age of Video<br />
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My new piece, on the golden age of video, from the Daily Express.<br />
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<b>According to reports, Funai Electric of Japan, thought to be the last
company in the world still making video cassette recorders (VCRs), is to cease
production.</b><br />
<b>
</b><b>Does this mark the end of the video age? If so, what a shame that would be.
The VCR changed the way we lived our lives and its impact can’t really be
understated. Today we take it for granted that we don’t have to be at home to
watch our favourite programmes at the time when they’re being broadcast.</b><br />
<b>
</b><b>We’ve got the likes of BBC iPlayer, ITV Player and catch-up TV and we can
probably see the programme on YouTube too at some point – that’s if we haven’t
set our sleek and slimline DVD to record it. </b><br />
<b>
</b><b>So it’s hard for the 21st-century generation, brought up on smartphones and
smart TVs, to appreciate how revolutionary VCRs were when they first appeared
in Britain
in the 1970s...</b><br />
<br />
You can read the whole article <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/694159/Video-royal-wedding-Princess-Diana-Prince-Charles-video-cassette-recorders-halt">here. </a><b><br /></b><br />
Neil Clarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479041156190090119noreply@blogger.com1